俄罗斯和乌克兰打了这么久了，大家觉得什么时候结束？

1road2west

sexpuppy 发表于 2022-4-7 18:12
Putin isn't a good strategist and acts too rashly. US wanted a conflict between Russia and Europe to ...

Not sure what options he had.  US has been planning for this for a long time...

US's superpower isn't really in the military (although super powerful in itself), but the US dollar.  Because everyone trades oils in USD, it dominates the international currency.  There is actually no way to destroy US without destroying global trade (for now).  When US prints money, inflation hits EVERYBODY because countries need US currency to trade.  Countries like China and Japan don't hold US reserve for fun or for investment... they have no choice.

This is why you see non-US aligned countries try to get away from USD now.

Maximaxi

这场仗还可以拖一拖，反正美国和欧盟的紧急援助不能无限期持续，苏联解体的情节是不会再一次发生吧。 俄罗斯不是当年的苏联，美国也不是当年的美国了

shagmate

1road2west 发表于 2022-11-18 15:52
Not sure what options he had.  US has been planning for this for a long time...

US's superpower i ...

Yep, exactly this USD is the defacto currency is because of oil is priced in USD.
Any FX is always pegged against another currency.  So when there is global downturn USD looks strongest.

zuminic

其实Crimea之后当地的情况没多大变化。。。 只是今年全球对那个地区的关注度火箭上升了

dzzzza

不知道最近中国出的计划书会不会有影响

kevenjames

美债还没炸，欧洲还没吃完，乌克兰结束不了的。
现在的问题是日本-韩国-台湾-菲律宾这条线。
个人预估赖清德很可能会上位，然后在东亚不断挤压摩擦。
之前在2010年的估计是10~15年内美国会在东亚对中国动手。
现在的情况比较复杂。
如果美国在欧洲那边操作顺利，把欧洲一家杀了就可以对冲掉美债带来的问题，那么在东亚这边大概率还是继续挤压摩擦。
如果欧洲那边不顺，或者杀出来效果不好，在东亚这边是有鼓动日韩台菲对中国发动摩擦的可能的。