North Korea problem

mmpleaser

N. Korea is really in trouble with China.

First time N. Korea named China instead of using neighboring country of its displeasure with China.
As China fights back with ban on export of oil to N. Korea if they do not tone down their nuclear program.

Once President Xi is mad and this will be the end of Fatso Kim.

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The Global Times, a state-backed Chinese tabloid, recently suggested a sixth nuclear test by the North would merit China cutting oil shipments. Doing so would be devastating to North Korea’s economy.

China could also apply major pressure by curtailing access to its financial system. Kelly points to 2005 US sanctions against (paywall) Banco Delta Asia, a bank in Macau holding North Korean funds, as an example: “The North Koreans got really hyper-sensitive about that, and there was a lot of regime activity about that the intelligence community picked up.”
People walk past a branch of Banco Delta Asia in Macau ,China , Wednesday 14 March 2007. Chairman Stanley Au of Banco Delta Asia SARL , on Friday 16 March 2007, denied wrongdoing over frozen North Korean assets and said the bank has complied with Macau law. China on Thursday criticized a US decision to ban all transactions with the Macau bank linked to illicit North Korean funds.
It was linked to illicit North Korean funds. (EPA/Paul Hilton)

But, he adds, some of the Chinese elite might also be nervous about actions taken against Chinese banks. “You hear people saying, ‘Hit them [the North Korean elite] where it hurts: Go after their cash in Chinese banks.’ The problem is, a lot of people are worried that’s tied to Chinese-elite money itself, and then you’re chewing towards the middle, as it were.”

“There is I think resistance to sort of showing the books because of other activities those banks may be used for for other actors within the Chinese system,” adds Stares.
Out of Beijing’s control

These days, much of the North Korean economy is fueled by the black market. Though Chinese players are heavily involved, it isn’t necessarily under Beijing’s control.

“Even if Beijing went ‘all in’ on economic sanctions and embargoes, the Chinese Communist Party may find it difficult to curtail black-market smuggling activities between Chinese companies and the DPRK,” says Liedman.

“I think North Korea has developed a whole black-market economy that helps keep it going,” says Freeman. “Not necessarily feeding lots of people, but it keeps the government going, and it probably helps pay for the nuclear program.”

North Korea has economic relationships outside of China, of course. For instance the regime essentially rents out slave labor to other repressive governments. It’s also a weapons supplier, and it profits handsomely from the civil war in Syria, helping the military of president Bashar al-Assad with parts, artillery, and technical assistance. It’s a partner with Iran on various fronts, including, possibly, nuclear weapons development.

It also dabbles in cyber-theft and has its own illicit drugs industry.
History lessons
Footage from Al Iraqiya television shows masked executioners putting a noose around former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's neck moments before his hanging in Baghdad December 30, 2006. Saddam was hanged for crimes against humanity at dawn on Saturday, a dramatic, violent end for a leader who ruled Iraq by fear for three decades before he was toppled by a U.S. invasion four years ago.
Saddam Hussein’s history lesson for Kim Jong-un. (Reuters/Al Iraqiya)

Many take it for granted that there’s some amount of economic pressure China could apply that would make the Kim regime give up its nuclear weapons. But “this is a widespread assumption that probably has no basis in fact,” notes John Pike, a military analyst at Globalsecurity.org. “Kim Jong-un saw what happened to Saddam [Hussein] and [Muammar] Gaddafi, and he doesn’t want to wind up in a necktie party.”

“Nuclear weapons are also a key tool as part of its blackmail diplomacy,” notes Maxwell. “The threat of use, proliferation, as well as holding out the possibility of talks, provides the regime with leverage to use with the US and international community.”

The Kim regime “has no intention of negotiating away its nuclear-weapons program,” he adds, though it may be open to “limitation and reduction talks.”

Then again, the elites surrounding Kim might apply pressure if their status and way of life is threatened. As a North Korean official said (paywall) after the US hit Banco Delta Asia, “You finally found a way to hurt us.”

China, Pyongyang knows, could also bring the pain.

chimera

That's great news. Glad China is stepping up. I also saw on the news this week North Korean media was bad mouthing China.

dragondick

Fat Boy has signed his own death warrant if not sealed his fate, by testing another missile yesterday and landed 60 miles off the coast of Russian seaport of Valdivostok (check spelling, which was China's 海參威 but the Russians took it from the Ching Dynasty.)

Aside from recent bad mouthing China, the incident was an open insult to China, and a message to Russia that "China has deserted me and if you don't help, you will get some of this too, together with China!".

This immediately triggered off Russia putting its defense system on high alert!

Now we know what will happen to Fat Boy, what remains to be done is how to do it without allowing USA to increase its influence on the Korean Peninsula, and it is much easier said than done!

mmpleaser

dragondick 发表于 2017-5-14 06:41
Fat Boy has signed his own death warrant if not sealed his fate, by testing another missile yesterda ...

Drone to the rescue.

Shoot the Fat boys car or cars in one shot or shots.

Bye bye, Hasta la vista  FAT BOY and his body guards.

dragondick

Killing Fat Boy is NOT enough, must knock off the missile sites too because we don't know whether Fat Boy's generals are more dangerous because one missile with a nuclear warhead can create a lot of casualties!

To preserve N Korea as a buffer, China would have to do it.  However, that would not reflect nicely on China's world-wide image.  

USA will be happy to do it, because USA has a bully image already, one more won't hurt.  An unified Korea will also strengthen US' containment of China.

Watch out for Japan, the petty thief in Asia!

just超齡

dragondick 发表于 2017-5-14 08:51
Killing Fat Boy is NOT enough, must knock off the missile sites too because we don't know whether Fa ...

Despite America's overwhelming military dominance, the odds of a surgical strike to take out the top leadership succeeding is extremely low. Even in the flat desert with nowhere to hide, the US couldn't take out Saddam Hussein. N Korea is mountainous with much more places to hide.

dragondick

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/15/eu ... -missile/index.html

Russian urged the West's (read as USA) intimation of North Korea should stop.

For once, I totally agree with Putin.

A.  Who gave USA's the right to decide which country can or cannot have nuclear weapons and how many?

B.  Countries who listened to USA by dumping their nuclear or chemical weapons stockpile got invaded by USA, e.g. Iraq, Libya by USA-inspired democratic movements.

Having said that, Fat Boy is "dangerous", he will use nuclear weapon as a blackmail tool and probably cause a nuclear war when (not if) he miscalculates and must be removed.  

China can play dumb by keeping quiet but cut off food and energy supplies to North Korea, and Fat Boy will come begging.

mmpleaser

Let China forget about the BUFFER ZONE.  Do not forget S. Korea Park was standing next to xi other than Putin during the military parade .
We could be allies too with friendly leadership.

Fat boy is nothing but trouble and tyrant to his N. Korean people.  They should be "liberated" and enjoy some peacetime fruit and deserve a good life TOO.

Take him even with collateral damage.

dragondick

Fat Boy's testing of a hydrogen bomb while Xi was hosting an international meeting in Xiamen (check spelling) pushed the world into a new crisis.

Fat Boy is really alone now.  His fate is sealed but might drag the world into a WW-III with nuclear warhead flying everywhere.

Frankly, USA is to blame for pushing the world to the edge of catastrophy:

1.  USA has no right to decide who can and cannot have nuclear weapons.
2.  USA has lost all credibility by asking other countries to disarm nuclear (WMD) capability then come up with an excuse to attack that country, e.g. Iraq, without any resolution or consent from UN.  This is why Fat Boy refused to scale down and did just the opposite.
3.  Using S. Korea as a front, positioned THADD missiles in S. Korea which is similar to the Cuban missile crisis.  This time both Russia and China are under threat from THADD because the system monitors the vital parts of China and Russia's military bases in north-eastern Asia.
THADD, as the name applies, is for HA (High Altitude), and will not be effective against LA (low altitude) missile or cannon fire!
4.  Regularly conduct joint military drills with S. Korean forces to antagonize Fat Boy.

USA has pushed itself to the point of no return while:
a.  Forced China and Russia to be closer.
b.  Don't forget East Europe!  Master minded a coup to topple the Turkish Government which failed, forcing Turkey (Although a NATO member) to get closer to Russia.

skytiger

对东北安全影响太大了！