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发表于 2020-5-10 12:43:14 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
The following is my forecast of the new world order, after the CoronaVirus - the Pandemic:

I.  The Downfall of the Divided (previously known as United) States, herewafter referred to as DS.

A.  DT who was unexpectedly voted into the White House, may be with some help from Russia but mostly due to Americans' dislike and DNC's preferance of Hilary Clinton which forced Sanders (with arm twisting from Obama) to admit defect only at the last minute while the poll clearly showed that anyone BUT HC, can defeat DT.
DT, not only is he a self-centred racist but also has a sky high personal ego which is too obsessed with erasing anything Obama + outdoing Obama, then further isolated USA in order to "Make American Great" Again.B.   "The Last Straw Which Broke the Camel's Back".  The DS Government has been bankrupt for a number of years due to various military adventures in all parts of the world, but most notably Afghanistan, and Iraq.  To make ends meet, the Government relied heavily on selling Government Bonds.  The pandemic created unemployment population of 3+ million and stoppage of economic activities.  If un-attended to, the un-employment army will create huge social problem, so DT chose to print more money to help the unemplyed, which aggrevated the the need for more relief money and higher deficits.  The time will come and SOON that the Govenment simply cannot print money with no collateral anymore!
Keeping in mind, DT's half-hearted approach to contain CoronaVirus will make things worse, the situation will not get any better until a vaccine is found or may never be found!
C.  When DS Government has no more money, it must stop all money-draining military acitivties which in turn will diminish its global influence.
D.  So, it in inevitable that DS will fade away just like UK in the early 60's.

II.  The Rise of China
A.  While the DS and Europe are sturggling to re-start the economy, China has already resumed  its role as the world's factory/supplier.  Of course, when the World market is unemployed and not buying, the World Factory cannot sell what it can produce, and its economy will be affected too.
B.  All countries with no more money, will look to China for help.  China will then exercise its growing influence in world affairs.
C.  China's GDP is about 2/3 of DS right now, with a stagnant DS economy and a growing Chinese economy, albeit at a slow pace, the gap will narrow much faster than anyone's expection.  I expect China can and will overtake DS within 5 years

III.  The Worse Scenario.
I don't even want to think about it, there is a possibility that DT will start a HOT war with China with "mutually assured destruction" in mind, with the hope that DS might suffer less and therefore can rebuild faster than China.  But then Russia will not sit idly by, will side with China, to give DS a final, K.O. punch.

The next 12 months should be a most interesting period for the World!


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发表于 2020-7-5 17:59:48 | 显示全部楼层
Dragon Gor, can you please comment on future world economy, Toronto real estate, US stock and Cdn stock market, and gold price; thanks

Seems economy is bad, but seems Toronto house price and stock market keep going up

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-7-6 11:46:33 | 显示全部楼层
cewek 发表于 2020-7-5 17:59
Dragon Gor, can you please comment on future world economy, Toronto real estate, US stock and Cdn st ...

As I said in my previous post, "The next 12 months should be a most interesting period for the World!"

(Incidentally, a lot of my forecasts came true already which does not mean I can be right all the time.)

DT is a DANGEROUS person, he will do anything, INCLUDING starting a nuclear war with China to get a 2nd term - to match OBAMA's.  Whenever the country is at war, the general American public will stand behind their president, albeit this is a 6th grader in charge of the nuclear buttons, and the president's popularity poll will improve and may be, win a 2nd term.

If there is a nuclear war, ALL BETS are off!

If there is no nuclear war:

1.  The World will find out that US is bankrupt, US Govt Bonds are worthless.  USA's property market will collapse.
2.  Canada, with Trudeau licking DT's ass + asking for more licking honours, will lose a lucrative Chinese consumer market in terms of agricultural products.  Canada's world wide credit rating has already dropped from AAA to AA.  Don't be surprised that it will drop some more in 6 - 12 months' time.
Canada is on the same path as US.
3.  China's growth will slow down too because world-wide demand for consumer goods is reduced.  Luckily, China has a growing middle class, almost like USA after WW-II and therefore will fair much better than European countries.

That is all that I can see right now.


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发表于 2020-7-7 21:33:33 | 显示全部楼层
Thanks Dragon Gor; lots of things like hi stock price , hot Toronto housing price are just do not make sense to me.

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发表于 2020-7-12 00:48:14 | 显示全部楼层
At this point, will spx go up or down? I am bearish cuz the # of infected keep reaching new highs. But graph still ticking up. That I don't understand.. who on search is buying?

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-7-12 07:52:24 | 显示全部楼层
bbb888 发表于 2020-7-12 00:48
At this point, will spx go up or down? I am bearish cuz the # of infected keep reaching new highs. B ...

My honest opinion:

1.  Not the time to invest in the stock market.
2.  If you must buy or you are already sitting on a lot of speculative stocks, be prepared to sell AT SHORT NOTICE. i.e. you must sit in front of your lap time full day, and be prepared to click "sell" (you will have a nervous breakdown!).

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