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中美貿易戰 中美打架無論輸贏 最倒楣的都是加拿大

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发表于 6 天前 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

中美貿易戰正在傷害加拿大的經濟。




滿地可銀行高級經濟學家古泰利(Sal Guatieri)表示,兩大國博奕,多方面影響了加拿大,例如鋼鋁關稅的實施,乃源起美國想懲罰中國而生的。


中國宣布將從6月1日起提高對美國進口品的關稅,並減少購買美國農產品及波音訂單,古泰利初步估算這將使美國經濟衰退一個百分點。


美國經濟衰退直接衝擊加拿大。古泰利表示:「根據美國經濟增長變化對加拿大影響的計算,美國國內生產總值減少1%可能轉化為加拿大生產總值減少0.5%。」他分析,早前的的鋼鋁稅和報復性關稅已經使加拿大經濟損失0.3%,如果再擴大,總計影響0.8%,約有15萬個工作崗位受到影響。





Capital Economics高級加拿大經濟學家布朗(Stephen Brown)警告,別忘了還有中國華為公司財務長孟晚舟司法事件帶來的傷害。「中國正擴大抵制加拿大商品進口,在全球經濟疲弱的大環境下,出口受挫不是一個好兆頭。」


但糟糕的是,如果中美順利達成協議,恐怕加拿大還是成為犧牲品。


華爾街日報報道,中美協議的關鍵部分將涉及中國石油化工股份有限公司從美國休斯頓Cheniere能源公司購買價值180億美元的液化天然氣,報道提到,這筆交易若成功,將使加拿大成為潛在輸家,因為中國購買液化天然氣的其他來源之一是加拿大液化天然氣公司(LNG Canada),該項目正在卑詩省Kitimat建設中,就是為了爭取亞洲市場,但若中美貿易談判結果讓中國只能購買美國天然氣,那加拿大損失可大了。





此外,中美談判中,美國還會要求中國大量購買美國的小麥、大豆、牛肉、豬肉和其他農產品,中國因此可獲得美國關稅減免,可想而知,加拿大的商品會失去競爭力。



                                                
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发表于 前天 08:33 | 显示全部楼层
Justin Trudeau is DT's ass licker, period.  Too bad, he dragged Canada into shame and soon, recession.

With regard to Sino-American Trade war, from the very beginning, I said that DT painted himself into a dead corner which he cannot get out without losing face.  Since DT is not accustomed to admitting mistakes, he will cause irreversible damage to the US economy and to a lesser extent China's as well.

Let me explain:

DT does not like reading and has no clue of recent Chinese history.  His negotiating tactics is bullying, except China is USA's biggest creditor + DT's demand for total surrender from China is perhaps 100+ years too late!

So DT first imposed import tariffs, China retaliated; DT increased some more, China followed suit.  DT was using the same tactics against Canada and if China give in, he could use this as an blueprint to force all other countries to follow suit.  DT also flip flopped several times to lose his credibility.

All along China asked to be treated as equals which is the RED LINE, just don't ask China to:

1. Change economic structure.  Who gave US the right to decide which country has a better economic structure + that is none of US's business.

2.  Give up "China 2015".  Same comment.

3.  China cannot retaliate if future tariffs are imposed.  This is equal to "I can do this to you, but you cannot do this me" = "I am the boss, you must obey what I say!"

China is doing the rest of the world a favour - stand firm against US' unreasonable demands.  You can bet that US's trade negotiations with all other countries will be difficult from now on.  All allies will start distancing themselves from USA until there is a new president in the White House!


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