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发表于 2018-11-21 18:53:06 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
现在利息上涨, 楼价暴跌

可是问题是经济又没有多好, 股市也跌, 热钱都到哪里去了?
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发表于 2018-11-22 08:31:09 | 显示全部楼层
Bonds, where else.
Interest rates going up.  Safe bet with AAA bonds.
It is about time.
China real estate too.
Everyone moves to Urban area.
To get rural farmers out of poverty, cheaper to MOVE THEM to cities, instead of building roads into their villages.
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发表于 2018-12-29 22:09:49 | 显示全部楼层
Isn’t it when interest rate goes up bond price goes down?
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 楼主| 发表于 2018-12-30 00:20:29 | 显示全部楼层
cewek 发表于 2018-12-29 22:09
Isn’t it when interest rate goes up bond price goes down?

Yes the yield goes down lol
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发表于 2019-1-7 08:28:01 | 显示全部楼层
cewek 发表于 2018-12-29 22:09
Isn’t it when interest rate goes up bond price goes down?

yes, because ppl will sell off their current bonds and purchase the new issues with the higher yield.

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发表于 2019-1-12 09:15:33 | 显示全部楼层
xyw5032 发表于 2019-1-7 08:28
yes, because ppl will sell off their current bonds and purchase the new issues with the higher yie ...

But if you keep the old bonds, no issue.  That was your yield BEFORE.  And you were happy to get them before.
That is why people will go for SHORT terms bonds when rates go up and Mortgage holders will go the other way.
As long as you do not need cash, your bond is still guaranteeing your interest, NO CHANGE.
Or if you want to move cash from stocks, you either buy new bonds or old bonds with lower interest rate and pay a LOWER price for those old bonds that has a lower interest rate, therefore second hand bonds will be CHEAPER with that old lower interest rate.

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发表于 2019-1-12 12:24:25 | 显示全部楼层
mmpleaser 发表于 2019-1-12 09:15
But if you keep the old bonds, no issue.  That was your yield BEFORE.  And you were happy to get t ...

Agree mostly.

however, when you factor in opportunity cost during a rising interest rate, the question becomes why would I keep this bond (say face value $1000 with 3% interest rate), when there is new issues of bond with 5% interest rate? Mostly like the investor would sell its current bond at a discount price less than <$1000 and purchase the new bond with 5% interest rate.
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发表于 2019-1-12 12:28:45 | 显示全部楼层
xyw5032 发表于 2019-1-12 12:24
Agree mostly.

however, when you factor in opportunity cost during a rising interest rate, the qu ...

Your old bond will be discounted for the 5% rate since it has 3% and remaining period to mature.
No one is stupid, you know.
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