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发表于 2017-4-30 09:47:38
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My forecast right now is that there will be some kind of non-nuclear military action because Fat Boy's defiance of Trump's (a newly elected president) warning despite the fact the NK's long range missiles "cannot fly".
Questions:
1. The Korean War in 1950's was sanctioned by UN because USSR boycotted that particular Security Council's meeting voting on military action in Korea. Towards the end, military activities came to a stalemate, and an armistice was signed.
2. If US wants to unilaterally break the truce, that wouldn't reflect too well on USA's world-wide image + pushing UN to the sideline which we know it is a US puppet anyway.
3. Even with conventional weapons, Seoul - the capital city of S. Korea which is only an hour+ away from the border, will take quite a bit of casualties and damages, is US ready to do this to its ally, South Korea? Probably will, because "it is your house on fire not mine!".
4. As a last resort, and if Fat Boy uses short range missiles or use conventional weapons to carry nuclear warhead, it is quite possible that a few warheads can sneak through. Will US retaliate with equal amount of intensity? Will China sit idle while the Korean buffer is being demolished?
5. IMHO, if war breaks out in Korea and if China steps in, and without using nuclear weapons, I am not even sure US can win (this is a BOLD statement!).
Finally, if war breaks out, US$ will weaken, oil and gold prices will go up |
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