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Vanguard commnets:
'Tis the season for 2017 outlooks.
The Dow keeps setting records, so a fair share of strategists — often upbeat to begin with — have visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads.
Not that it's all cheery chatter. Vanguard's end-of-year take says pessimists and optimists each have had their shining moment — and then blasts them both.
As 2016 ends, market sentiment has "quickly shifted from an overly pessimistic outlook of cyclically weak stagnation toward an overly optimistic expectation of a growth acceleration," says the investing giant's economics team, led by Joe Davis. "Both views are incorrect."
What we're actually likely to get is neither stagnation nor a boom. Instead, we'll get more low global growth, according to Vanguard's 2017 outlook, which serves as our call of the day.
What should investors expect? Portfolio returns will be modest, compared with the heady gains scored since the depths of the financial crisis, Davis & Co. say. They add that they're "guarded, but not bearish."
Their key tail risks for next year include U.S. trade renegotiations, European elections, Brexit talks, and Russia's "foreign policy adventures." There's also political uncertainty in the Philippines, Venezuela and South Africa to watch for.
As for recession in the U.S., this could be triggered by the collapse of global trade, aggressive monetary policy, a U.S. stagflation scenario and a Chinese financial crisis, Vanguard says. |
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发表于 2016-12-6 07:57:47
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