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发表于 2016-9-29 11:45:27
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It's hard to say what upcoming events will do to the dollar.
One you have Trump being elected in November which should cause a rush of money from the stock markets out of fear. This money usually goes straight to bonds and treasury bills.
Two you have oil prices rising in November from the freeze. The overproduction of OPEC should have killed off many shale producers so oil should rise quite a lot. This means CAD should go up, that is, if the fed does not raise rates. I am all for a higher CAD as I am in Imports.
Three you have the fed raising rates by a quarter of a basis point in December, but so far US economy has not recovered as expected and the fed can always go "nevermind". The fed might have also been holding out on rate increases to make the Democrats look good in time for re-election. When Trump is elected they may suddenly hike the rates several times decreasing the money supply. However Trump is all for repatriating offshore USD so this may offset the rate hikes and keep the USD stable as trillions flood back into the US.
Four say that Trump is elected, his policies should take time to pass congress, however it is a republican controlled congress so he may have an easier time than Obama.
One thing I am sure of is that CAD will rise if Saudis freeze oil and Trump is elected. I am pretty sure Trump will be elected, no one trusts Hillary no matter how good she sounds and looks, its all talk. |
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