Fed fund rate rise guesses

mmpleaser

Right now, reported on CNBC, there are 2 camps for fed rate rise.  Sept JPmorgan, credit swiss, Dec Goldman, Morgan stanly.  Guess what with the carry trade money moved into China before, Chinese is smarter, fired the first canon to give the future expected capital outflow from China got the haircut right away of 3% or more.  Instead of waiting for the haircut after the rate rise.  Bravo China central bank top officials (but they might just react to the Chinese economy slowdown.  But may be clean air is better for Chinese instead of more wage increase.  Investment economy is becoming a consumer economy (towards US shares of Consumers accounting for 70% of economy).   Too much consumer savings is not good either, with the government supporting social security, requesting a lot of contribution from tax on wages to fund it.

tomsiu

You should cut down your alcohol .....

asuran

tomsiu 发表于 2015-8-22 01:07
You should cut down your alcohol .....

It's friday night!! Let him have a few!!

mmpleaser

I totally agree with the 2 Bro comments.  How did Tom know that I drank?  Did not know that my video monitor transmit remotely the Smell of alcohol over internet!  As to the time issue, everyday is the same to me.  Just like I tell myself that when an item is on sale, I will buy it as it is my BIRTHDAY that day.

Somehow I sense the freshmen pledge week is getting to the end, am I accepted by the upperclassmen now.
But I already went to the other school and come here just to audit classes (like Mr Jobs in his freshmen year) without paying any tuition here.  I am a free loader just Mr Jobs.

By the way, I NEVER drink alcohol before seeing the MM.  I can control myself.  Spending 100 + and use alcohol does not make sense.  I want the BEST customer experience when I pay big bucks  (min wage in Ontario is less than 12, 100 HH is 10 times the minimum, very expensive, but MM sacrifice a lot of their private parts for that, not complaining) and drink only AFTER the fact.  Alcohol is used when bored, lonely etc, like how I feel now.   

mmpleaser

By the way, do you really know definition of carry trade and haircut?  Those are the terms used in the investment bank community and those guys work very long hours to stay there.  (think Goldman Sache, annual bonus could be higher than their regular salary.  Some could buy a NYC condo after getting bonus check in March.  Watch the NYC real estate sales record.

tomsiu

I knew you want BLOW WATER. Before that please make yourself more focus (stop drinking).
You opened a "specific" TITLE but talking different subject(s). This forum has more talents than you thought. Here I show you how to paragraph them: [First things first, you must have fresh mind = stop drinking]

Investment economy is becoming a consumer economy:
All CONSUMABLE income (salary, wages, interest, dividend, Company profit) derived from INVESTMENTS. No exception.
>Invest in Education end up earns good salary/wages for consumption.
>Invest in good Machinery end up earns profit of manufactured products.
>Invest in good people end up earns profit from their hardship (say Google or NASA).
>Invest in airplane ticket end up saves thousand of shoes by walking.
It's transformation. A law. A desires. Means that 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ........
You can't reach 5 without passing 1,2,3,4. Or,
If there ain't 5 you won't have 1,2,3,4 (not exists)  

carry trade: Borrow at lower cost. Using such to invest in high yield.
Haircut: The buffer between MARKET value and LOAN cost.

This postings subject "Fed fund rate rise guesses". How many WORDS you use as refers?

mmpleaser

tomsiu 发表于 2015-8-22 08:01
I knew you want BLOW WATER. Before that please make yourself more focus (stop drinking).
You opened  ...

You are right.  Would you be in the medical profession.  All my doc tells me no more than 2 beers a day.  My triglyceride level is above limit.  I am killing my self.  But I would like to die happy eh!

mmpleaser

Looks like due to the market turmoil, Fed could not raise rates in Sept.  But in order to show that Fed is NOT the paper tiger, most think that it will raise rate,  likely in Dec 2015 after the Xmas shopping season.

mmpleaser

CNBC reported that large amount of redemption by PBOC of US Treasuries to pay out the CAPITAL OUTFLOW from China.  With the devalued RMB, those guys are getting a haircut from their capital inflow before.  Risky eh.  Loss from exchange risk, rather than interest rate risk.

tomsiu

mmpleaser 发表于 2015-8-26 12:27
Looks like due to the market turmoil, Fed could not raise rates in Sept.  But in order to show that  ...

Apparently in China 李克強, is the ultimate decision maker for Central bank function. Not say 李克強 is wrong but just trying to tell its system is very PERSONAL. Its policy carried out without a trend. Without a system. But very quick and responsive. Good or bad .... don't know and no prediction.

The Fed (Central bank of USA) operates differently from China. It is traceable. It has systems. It is predicable. Judging by a group of policy maker. Obama hands off on it. Although there ain't firm but all economic data favor an interest raise going to be happened in September.

Disregard the recent turmoil in Global stock market I predict USA will raise its interest rate in September. May be 0.125%. Let's review this in about 3 weeks.

Aug 27, 2015