TAIWAN'S POLITICAL SCENE

mmpleaser

Sorry to be off the topic.
Do you think that US is becoming Socialist in Domestic policy, and China is becoming Capitalist with some social welfare being set up instead?

tomsiu

mmpleaser 发表于 2015-9-7 17:57
Sorry to be off the topic.
Do you think that US is becoming Socialist in Domestic policy, and China  ...

Uh, 大泡和. You are smarter than I thought. At least, not stubborn.

US is becoming Socialist in Domestic policy ~~~ Actually it is but not capable due to money (not rich enough). Among G7 US and Italy has the worst social program. Here in homeland Canada that we're more socialist compared to China.

China is becoming Capitalist with some social welfare ~~~ Uh, you use "some" in this sentence . It is happening now. But it could be collapse as China doesn't have enough talent in administration of finance. Particularly it is under ONE person direction 李克強. [IMO RMB should continue devalue its exchange rate when export keep decreasing in fast speed. Or 李克強 is super smart than I thought]

A lot of (HK/Taiwan) people think that Mainland China still communist ........ naive. It's name is communist, Yes. But she is becoming Capitalist with some social welfare

mmpleaser

tomsiu 发表于 2015-9-8 02:07
Uh, 大泡和. You are smarter than I thought. At least, not stubborn.

US is becoming Socialist in Do ...

China is really under ONE PERSON RULE, XI DAI DAI (for better or worse).  Mr. Premier has less power than before.
Xi Dai Dai is taking on too much.  May be he should spend more time with the PRETTY First lady instead.  Heading TOO MANY teams to control China.  He may need more Color for Men (BLACK to cover white hair).  All US presidents aged so much during their term, look at Mr. Obama and Clinton etc.  Mr. New Chairman Mao is stirring up a lot of shit, which is both necessary and urgent, to prevent the collapse of the One party System.  June 4, 1989 may come every soon if not fixed.  Internet is doing Arab Spring in Muslin Dictatorship countries, and with so many social media and smart phones being used in China,  any rumor can spread so fast and it may become reality. Education and literacy can both be a blessing and curse for leadership.  

mmpleaser

tomsiu 发表于 2015-9-8 02:07
Uh, 大泡和. You are smarter than I thought. At least, not stubborn.

US is becoming Socialist in Do ...

Reason that RMB cannot be devalued TOO FAST is to maintain order.  Gradual but not snow balling.  Trend is to go down, and it will naturally when US raised Fed Fund rate.  US had to, or it is really PAPER TIGER.  There is no future ammunition to stimulate if remains at zero (9 YEARS for crying out loud).  Their goal is to pump up value of ALL assets especially housing.   
Consequence is not exactly good, rich get richer.  Now there is income inequality problem.  Like TO, house value increase is greater than a household earners annual income.  Income or wages does not increase much at all.  No matter what stock market crash is, Fed had to do something.  Anyway the market took into account of the rate increase already.  IE. It is expected.
Notice that RMB 100 new bill are out.  Wonder if that is one way to flush out the Corrupted official put so much of those in every place they can hide.  May be soon people wonder how come you got so many OLD bills as most people will get new ones from their bank after paycheck issued.   Did not put money in the bank, what is going on??????  China version of Patriot Act for Money Laundering????

dragondick

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/17/as ... ate-swap/index.html


We will not have two female candidates fighting to become the first female Chinese president afterall.  KMT rescinded its nomination of Hung as a candidate for the presidential race.

dragondick

About 3 months ago, KMT withdrew support of its female candidate and placed its support behind the Party Chairman, Chu, as the Party's nominee for the up-coming presidential race, the election is scheduled to take place next week.

Based on the latest opinion poll, DPP's female nominee Tsai will win by a landslide.

So, it is still highly possible that there will be a first democratically elected female president in Chinese history.

Please note that the Taiwan's presidential election is decided by "direct voting" (popular vote) method.  Only a handful of countries in the world can brag about this democracy.  Even USA is behind in presidential election's democratic process!





  

dragondick

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/asia/taiwan-election/index.html

There will be a female president in Taiwan and the ruling KMT nominee has conceded defeat.
President-elect Tsai will take office in May, a historical first!

DPP is an independence-leaning party.  China will not tolerate an independent Taiwan, nor will Chinese all around the world want to see a long divided China.  However, if Tsai does not strike a delicate balance, it will mean trouble.

30 years ago, there were 4 Asian Dragons, namely, Hong Kong, Taiwan, S. Korea, and Singapore.  Today, only Singapore and S. Korea survived.  The return of Hong Kong to China in 1997 marked the death one dragon.  Taiwan's economic growth was based on light industry, but that fell apart with the emergence of China becoming the world's light industrial factory.

With China getting stronger economically, while Taiwan's economy became stagnant in recent years, China's per capita income will overtake Taiwan in may be 10 years or less.  The time for unification is ripe.

We can foresee Taiwan's economy going downhill when China plays the economy card, then an influx of MM from Taiwan to Toronto and that means a lot more to 747 brothers!  

tomsiu

dragondick 发表于 2016-1-16 08:26
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/asia/taiwan-election/index.html

There will be a female president in T ...

Hey DD ..... no more KMT ?
Taiwan's population even less than 上海. Their "international" extension limited by proclamation of "一个中国". Hoping 蔡英文 understands this?
USA doesn't want 蔡 making trouble (as 扁 did). Feel shame to those 小国小民的思想! While China already set her bottom line.

Our "international" pride (Chinese) brought from 共产党. If you not agree, whom did?

[Back to 30+ years ago, when I was in Canada, Chinese status not much appreciated (much under) as of today]

tomsiu

dragondick 发表于 2016-1-16 08:26
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/16/asia/taiwan-election/index.html

There will be a female president in T ...

Today, only Singapore and S. Korea survived.  ~~~~

Singapore: When Singapore spin-off from Malaysia, she immediately lean to USA. And later to China when China grew to 2nd economic power.
South Korea: When South Korea spin-off from Japan, she immediately lean to USA. And later to China when China grew to 2nd economic power.

This is law of survival(progress). Even England lean to USA to make her different from France/German (EU).

Why those Chinese in Taiwan/HKG act differently? Thus, 面子 prevails?

euchen

Hi

Just to throw in my 2 cents.

1. China wants Taiwan because
    a. Economic boost - Look what HK did for China, it can be expected for Taiwan too
    b. Military - Having Taiwan serves as a military base to the Pacific Ocean
    c. Political - It would be a big political focus for China to anyone who can pull it off

2. How the new President of Taiwan will be interesting
   a. She will need to be very careful to tread the line so that China will not use military force. Its a very fine line.
  b. There are lots of cleanups from KMT, and the power/wealth KMT have consolidated over the last 100 years, it will be difficult to get anything done.
  c. Military wize, Taiwan can't defend itself, so it will have to rely on other countries. How they react, especially U.S. will be a major factor. If the U.S. is viewed as weak, the chances of a military operation will be much higher from China.
d. If new president can get everything that she wants done in the 4 years, things will probably improve. However, the main question is, will there be enough time.