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楼主
 发表于 2014-6-4 00:57:01 | 只看该作者 
Any mature political reader should have noticed that China is again being cornered by contries.
In the Shangri-La conference, the US, Japan, Australia and Vietnam verbally massacred China over the South Sea issue. Later in the week, Japan and US will again condem China during the G7 conference. This time, they will push their message into a Declaration. If that happens, it would mean that G7 officially support the removal of Chinese oil rig near Xisha islands, kowning that Xisha islands was relaimed by China pre-1945 by the then governing party - Kuomintang.
However, Kuomintang was weak then and is still weak today. Althought the reclaim of the islands was on the footnote of the post world war II Cairo Declaration, Kuomintang represented Taiwan is politically insignificant to express any opinion today Hence they keep quiet, just as if China has nothing to do with Taiwan.
Ultimately, certain countries will want to supress China and make sure either its economy, politic or society will collapses, to the point that the country remains insignificant like how it was in the 60 and 70s.
I believe this site has many asian of chinese root but non chinese nationals (Han population). Do you feel concerned that many wishes the collapse of China?
I know in the US, people look at Persians crooked, because the whole middle east is stirred up to near collapse. Perhaps one day the Han poplulation will meet the same faith, by then, does it matter whether we say we are Canadian citizen or our parents are from Taiwan/HonKong?
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 发表于 2014-6-4 01:35:58 | 只看该作者
I am concerned about the militaristic path that Japan is re-embarking on. It is the gravest threat that China faces. The SE Asian countries are comparatively insignificant, and are pretty much useless without the backing of Uncle Sam.
The Japanese have large stockpiles of plutonium and the technical knowledge & ability to process them into usable nuclear weapons within a matter of months if they choose to do so. This makes them a de facto nuclear power. They also have ballistic missile technology cloaked within a civilian space program which would allow them to deliver nuclear warheads to any location in China. Lastly, although China's naval capabilities have come a long way, Japan's SDF navy is still much stronger than China's. If push ever came to shove, I'm very worried that China would face another humiliating loss (and that is assuming Japan is fighting independently without the help of Uncle Sam). |
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| 板凳
发表于 2014-6-4 10:00:28 | 只看该作者
Very interesting ----- China cornered by G7? Not likely! IMO ~~~ just won't/can't!
US used to frozen her enemies' bank account/Assets. US done it to Russia/Iran/Iraq/Egypt. Why she can't do it to China? (China holds 1 trillion US Treasury bills). Would US default redemption of debt (to China)? Not likely! IMO ~~~just won't/can't.
US is a country having 100% FREE economy. If you could connect this (to above) then you probably understand why I had my own opinion.
[Japan/Korea etc are semi-free economy country. China not.]
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| 地板
发表于 2014-6-4 10:50:06 | 只看该作者
Ben2009 发表于 2014-6-4 01:35
I am concerned about the militaristic path that Japan is re-embarking on. It is the gravest threat t ...
Japan is not allowed to change one of the conditions of its surrender, i.e. it cannot have a military force of offensive capability. However, with USA not objecting, in fact condoning to it, Abe is doing just that.
With regard to island disputes, I think PRC should take up the issue to UN or International Court in Geneva because another condition of Japan's surrender is that all previously territories taken by war must be returned to its rightful owner, this would include Ryuku Islands (Okinawa); Diaoyu Island has always been part of Taiwan Hsien, was annexed to Japan together with Taiwan under a separate treaty, not the result of the 1st Sino-Japanese War, Japan will have no defense.
Furthermore, B4 establishing diplomatic relationship with PRC, the US navy from time to time asked for permission from Taiwan to use these un-inhabited islands for target practice, basically recognizing Diayu Islands came Taiwan's jurisdiction.
If & as long as the military conflict between PRC & Japan is confined to the Diayu Islands, i.e. not on Japan's main islands, don't think USA will do anything.
If Japan wants to start a war, let me stress "start", Japan's geographic size cannot absorb one H-bomb whereas PRC can take a few.
If USA lends a helping hand, it might have to absorb a few H-bombs as well. USA treasure American lives a lot more than other countries.
Anyway, I don't see that happening. Time is on the side of PRC & PRC can wait.
Meantime, PRC can play some economic cards too, just subtly ask Chinese around the world NOT to buy Japanese goods, namely vehicles, Japan's economy will be in more trouble; plus "cash in" USA bond holdings at maturity which will put a big dent in USA's credit rating. |
| One small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind - Neil Armstrong, JUL21 1969.
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| 5#
 楼主| 发表于 2014-6-4 20:00:20 | 只看该作者
tomsiu 发表于 2014-6-4 10:00
Very interesting ----- China cornered by G7? Not likely! IMO ~~~ just won't/can't!
US used to froze ...
The world politics is unfortunately deeper than that.
None of the G7 country will actually get their hand dirty. They will use "war by representation". What will likely happen is that US will "name" Japan as the representative or the arbitrator in Asia, very well knowing that there is a grudge between these two countries (China/Japan). But that is exactly the point, this is called strategic positioning or "wedging".
Having Japan representing Asia, Vietnam and Philippine will then receive financial support from Japan. They will likely be the actual fighters who disturb China and who exchange their life to burn Chinese resources. As of now, the costs for protecting the rig is already about 2-5 millions a month. In case of a region war, it will be billions a year.
While Japan can sell weapons to them and make a profit. Revenue will in turn revive their dieing economy, which further gain support from their voters. Military equipment are the most profitable business. To put things in perspective, for instance Korea is currently paying US for military "stationary fee" and "consulting fee". The costs is Samsung and Kia's annual revenue combined.
Among the Han population, US and Japan will then influence Taiwan and even Hong Kong. In fact, from various protest happening in Taiwan and Hong Kong, we can see the the emotions are high, therefore best candidate to start internal conflict. Many smart Chinese in Hong Kong knows they simply want democracy yet still respect their Chinese root, but unfortunately there are far more who knows nothing but simply hate the mainland for whatever hearsay they have obtained. The same happens in Taiwan.
International Court and Geneva was funded and maintained by the western countries. Among them, the head would be America. After World War II, Chinese Kuomintang was not invited in the declaration of victory. The losing islands were only quietly reclaimed by Kuomintang. Therefore, they are called "disputed island" today. There is a very high probability that the court, controlling by the US anyways, will now claim Kuomintang reclaimed the island unilateral at the time, hence was never recognized internationally.
Strategy is really fun, just track and trace America's actions throughout the years, one will notice that they are indeed great strategist.
Hopefully China will be able to hold up this time. |
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| 6#
发表于 2014-6-7 04:52:19 | 只看该作者
Japan's best hope is to lure the US deeper into the Pacific conflict and help to destroy the Chinese military build up in the near future. However, western countries stand against it despite the efforts of Abe.
Too risky!
On her own, the Japs are hopeless, a few missiles will finish her off.
Anybody will highly doubt the US to allow the Japs to develop the nuclear bomb.
The simply reason: this will lead to eventual spread of nuclear technology.
In due time: Iran, Iraq, Saudi, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, etc will all become nuclear powers.
Americans and her allies will not take on such a risk. Therefore non-nuclear for Japan. |
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| 7#
发表于 2014-6-7 06:55:01 | 只看该作者
I have a different thoughts to this situation!
>US would not engage war to China. Just can't/impossible. Reason being too many Americans had involved to China/Chinese in all course of activities. Including trade, tourist, stock market, schooling & friendship. Their (citizens) votes lean on China.
>China's expansion to East/South China sea with the target TAIWAN. I still remembered 鄧小平/江澤民 and current agenda of 領土完整. And even 習近平 mentioned it. It must have a deadline/date for unity.
>Obama recent trip's to Japan/Philippine/Malaysia are shows for political reason. US encouraged these "tiny" 打手 to slow down (or warnings) China's expansion. [Obama dare not visit Taiwan].
Hahaha .... I am a person always having a different thought to a single situation/incident. My opinion may not true but providing a 2nd thoughts. [See my writings on 秦始王, 孙中山, 華駝 and even June 4, 1989, etc]. I am not a FOLLOWER. I have my own brain (to judge). I believe no 揭秘.
Hehehe .. comments welcome 
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| 9#
发表于 2014-6-7 10:59:14 | 只看该作者
7samurai 发表于 2014-6-7 08:41
This is a very complex topic. It will require level 10 thinking that only game theory models can p ...
then dear 7 can u covert this lvl 10 thinking to as low as lvl 3 if not lvl 1 for us, in plain english, so everyone can understand... it is a lot of material to read through on a fine sat morning, thank you  |
| coldfeet before the trip, it will be over soon, but so much can happen in a blink of an eye, let alone weeks. dont let me down sweetie, u gonna completely alter my lifepath once u step into that house
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| 10#
发表于 2014-6-7 11:17:19 | 只看该作者
happypooning 发表于 2014-6-7 10:59
then dear 7 can u covert this lvl 10 thinking to as low as lvl 3 if not lvl 1 for us, in plain eng ...
Unfortunately it's beyond my circle of competence. I'm still level 1.999? |
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发表于 2014-12-26 03:22:09
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