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油价涨至4年新高,下周会大幅回调?

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发表于 2018-9-29 23:13:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
如题,有兴趣的朋友可以进来讨论。
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发表于 2018-10-6 20:40:26 | 显示全部楼层
Since this was posted 7 days before , Still I not see prices coming down . Even Trumps Threat to UAE are not working, Though  UAE  promissed USA that they increase the production of oil but it does not make any impact on oil prices . Can you please  explain, what makes you think that prices in coming week or 2 will come down
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发表于 2018-10-7 05:46:56 | 显示全部楼层
Everything hinges on the mid-term election, if the Republican Party loses control of the Congress, DT could face impeachment or an undercurrent of it, and if cornered, DT will take risks to divert attention and/or maintain national unity, and the easiest one is to start a war somewhere in the middleeast with both sides  bombing the other sides' oil wells.

Even if oil installations are intact, Whenever there is a military conflict, oil price will go up not down!
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发表于 2018-10-7 07:24:39 | 显示全部楼层
Reason for oil going up is mainly due to Iran sanction to start soon.  Assuming no extra oil production.

But Saudi said it will help out DT by increasing supply.  Iran oil will just go to China instead, net gain or loss will be zero if Iran got sanction.  So China will get less from other producers and from lot more from Iran.
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 楼主| 发表于 2018-10-13 21:12:18 | 显示全部楼层
Sorry guys for not responding you immediately. Glad to see your thoughts and we all know the answer now.  Haha I have been overseeing oil prices for a long time and I thought the key reason was IRan sanction just like mmpleaser said which is coming soon. So investors worry about the dump of oil production which could be replaced quickly by other countries,especially Saudi Arabia. Trump would put much pressure on Saudi Arabia for winning the midterm elections. If there is sudden news about increasing oil production, oil prices will be going down considering prices  have  been going up for a long time, which may caused by investors’ irrationality. In addition, the uncertain economic growth of China and the America-China war would be another reason. To be honest, I lost some money in shorting oil prices.
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