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中美贸易战 谁会赢?

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发表于 2018-4-4 18:38:32 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

近一个多月来,中美两国就贸易课题摩擦不断,且不断升级,美国对进口的中国铝箔产品增加关税,中国也采取反制手段,加征对美国进口产口的关税,让中美贸易战一触即发。

而且目前中国已经对美国的贸易战做出了相对应的 贸易制裁。将会直指大豆进口。

大家觉得真的这样发展下去 那边会占领上风呢?


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 楼主| 发表于 2018-4-6 00:03:17 | 显示全部楼层

特朗普疯了吧。。。

特朗普在白宫发布的声明中表示,如果美国贸易代表办公室认为此举合适,应制定相应的加征关税商品清单。美国贸易代表办公室当天对此回应,总统要求采取额外制裁措施是“合适的”,任何额外的关税建议措施也将接受公众意见。这意味着,在美国贸易代表办公室完成全部流程前,追加关税的措施将不会生效。
  此前,美国贸易代表办公室依据“301调查”结果,已于3日宣布拟加征关税的中国商品建议清单,涉及每年从中国进口的价值约500亿美元商品。特朗普的最新举动意味着,美国可能最多对从中国进口的1500亿美元商品加征关税。
  美国贸易代表办公室3日建议对来自中国的约1300种商品加征25%的关税,主要涉及信息和通信技术、航天航空、机器人、医药、机械等行业。公众可于5月11日之前向贸易代表办公室就清单内容和税率提交书面意见。此外,301调查委员会将于5月15日就清单内容举行听证会,并在5月22日之前再次接受公众意见。

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发表于 2018-4-7 06:49:19 | 显示全部楼层
China has a TRUMP card:  Rare earth exports.

2010 some countries (USA, Japan) complained to WTO for China restriction on exports of RE.
If USA insists on the stupid tariff, China can try the TRUMP card again, let us see who can win this war for High Tech products.
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发表于 2018-4-7 11:10:37 | 显示全部楼层
China is the major CREDITOR of US Govt because China is the largest holder of Government Bonds.

The Bonds are just a credit line/loan which normally requires collateral when you apply for same from your local banks, but US Govt Bonds are just sold on "trust".  When "trust" is gone, all creditors would want their money back, or not buying anymore, the US economy will collapse.

IMHO, US Govt is broke for a long time and has been trying to get by, by selling these un-guaranteed bonds.  All it takes is a start to trigger an avalanche to bury the US Govt which has been burning $ by dictating its wishes in all parts of the world.

Once this starts, there is no turning back and should be the last resort for China.

Just imagine, when US Govt wants to borrow (Congress just approved increasing Govt's debt ceiling only 2 months ago) by selling bonds but no country wants to buy, but only want to unload what they are holding.....

Ever since Obama days, US has been alienating its long-term allies, e.g. Saudi Arabia - #3 Govt bond holder, while setting Iran free from sanctions.  Trump's "America First" policy also upsets EU heavy weights - UK (still a member but not for long), Germany, and France.

China can also renew buying intentions of Air Bus instead of Boeing!

China's presidential term has also been changed to "no term limit", while Trump definitely won't win the re-election for a 2nd term.

All things considered, in any war regardless of whether it is military or trade, both parties will lose somewhat and suffer the consequences, but China has been dealt a better hand.





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发表于 2018-4-9 00:11:37 | 显示全部楼层
Canada will win. Other countries will win too. Unless it gets so bad that the global economy crashes. Then nobody will win.
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发表于 2018-5-8 02:04:55 | 显示全部楼层
In a trade war, gun happy Yankees will seek to turn it into a shooting war.
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