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Which one will grow faster, Alibaba or Amazon?

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发表于 2015-9-15 04:31:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
I understand the opaqueness of both retail giants.  Both can manufacture their P&L and control their numbers easily.  Their stock prices could go up and down at will.  Cautious on both stocks please.

But I am interested in the business models they have.

Amazon is doing fantastic job in creating new opportunities in multiple fronts.  Spending CAPEX big time in building up humongous warehouses (count by football fields, Kavi Robots, secured warehouses with little chance of theft) and distributions and even in distribution (they probably is the main supporter of US POSTAL Services now, even delivering their packages on Sundays).  Their strength is NOT really in making available products cheap but ALSO convenient. Many times I found item on sale and went to store, either it is out of stock, or hard to find.  Waste gas, time and not getting it.  And this is a place with a lot of stores and selection.  I would be a lot better off to get it from Amazon, even if the price is not cheaper.  The only issue with Amazon is that they COULD ship it in 2 days but WOULD not.  And it has to be $35 in total to get the 5 days free shipping.   So for a country with saturated retail stores, Amazon has it advantages, CONVENIENCE at very competitive price.  Country with 70% GDP in consumer spending, it is kind of Matured.

Now  to Alibaba, again we do not talk about stock pricing.  Only on growth.
Yes JD.com to catching up to Ali and Ali should wake up.
But the environment is still very favorable.  Ali had very little inventory and if I understand it correctly, it provided little inventory, mainly as a middleman to facilitate the transfer of good from vendor to consumer.  Hence the issue of counterfeit good suit coming up from luxury manufaturers.
But China is still only 30%GDP from consumers and trend to move up the ratio a lot higher.  Domestic consumption of goods and services versus Exporting in GDP composition.
Geographically, it is spreaded both RURAL and URBAN and the recent migration to cities are decreasing due to the hardship and cost of living away from family in major cities.  Rural area has little selection or available of products to buy.  Also the output of farm products are small scale and has a lack of logistics to move them to where the consumers are.  Apparently Ali is trying to first supply rural consumers product to use via shipping and choice,   then they will pursue opportunites to entice the old consumers to be supplier to ship their agricultural or home made products to urban or other rural areas to buy and raise rural area people earning power via their product sales.  Central government is encouraging such a trend to increase the family life and living standard of rural people.  Otherwize the bubble nature of the major cities is going to cause all sorts of unrest from the unfavorable living conditions.
So Ali may have an advantage in growth and they are actually doing the same or more like Amazon by investing in major distribution center vs the EMPTY shell they had before with LITTLE inventory.
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发表于 2015-9-15 06:54:03 | 显示全部楼层
None of them can compare with our erections!  
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 楼主| 发表于 2015-9-15 07:56:07 | 显示全部楼层
dragondick 发表于 2015-9-15 06:54
None of them can compare with our erections!

You mean yours.  I asked MM to blow it firm all the time.  They did like my dick top (turtle head in Chinese).  I have no way to compare, as my firmness is the issue for me.
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发表于 2015-9-15 20:59:48 | 显示全部楼层
Amazon already has it huge market share worldwide.

Alibaba is like the Chinese version of Amazon that only expanded recent year or two worldwide.

Alibaba will be the one that is growing while Amazon is the one holding the big brother position.

Maybe one day it may become like the iPhone vs Samsung battle. It is not at that point yet. Alibaba is the one that needs to catch up first.
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 楼主| 发表于 2015-9-15 23:03:49 | 显示全部楼层
Alibaba is being chased by JD.com.  But market is big in China and rural areas need not build big malls and cannot afford too.  
Amazon is operating in well served areas, they can only offer price and convenience advantage.  But not something like only game in town.  Does not have Prosumer class (both consume and produce)  
Ali with Jd.com are like Oligopoly there, No brick and mortar to worry about.  The customers are getting richer Faster than US and developed countries.
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发表于 2015-9-27 20:49:51 | 显示全部楼层
Alibaba is all hype.smoke and mirrors for an ipo. If you knew how they were growing their sales so rapidly pre ipo (shady cpa companies) you would understand its not sustainable.

Amazon is the king. They are so far beyobd retail its insane. On top of being the biggest marketplace on the planet they are now also the biggest cloud service (they run the backend for all high traffic websites/apps) and they are a movie/tv studio now too(just won a bunch of emmys) and are competing with netflix.

They are in so many businesses now its insane and they smash any competitor bc they are willing to take a loss to drive u out(very predatory).

Their mantra is your margin is my opportunity LOL.

One of the only tech companies that has been growing rapidly since the last tech bubble.
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发表于 2015-10-29 00:57:15 | 显示全部楼层
both of them
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发表于 2015-10-31 22:04:23 | 显示全部楼层
amazon亏了好多年, it与物流的投入相当大, 它的global infrastructure是比阿里強大
阿里没这亏过 可主业务看的出慢了下來
供应链的顶端是金融家, 而实业里最容易赚的钱还是钱滚钱
阿里的业务有金融化的趋向, 將來有可能做到一块钱做十块钱的生意
投资者要的是利润, 亏久了谁也受不了
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发表于 2015-10-31 22:41:21 | 显示全部楼层
阿里巴巴会比较稳定 但是它在持续的转型 所以它以后的主业不会是网店
如果中国的一路带一路的计划能够成功 那么阿里巴巴的业务将会有一个爆发性的增长
至于亚马逊  曾经在那coop过 说实话 对于这个企业不看好 只是西方社会的一种常见垄断企业,一旦中国企业能够正常进入欧美市场 它会很快消亡
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